莊家震倉洗盤三大手法

[font=標楷體][size=5]莊家震倉洗盤三大手法

下面筆者將重點解說莊的三大出貨洗盤手法。技術分析的指標雖然多達上百種，但歸根結底，最基本的就是價格與成交量，其他指標無非就是這兩個指標的變異或延伸。

量價關係的基本原理，是“量是因，價是果；量在先，價在後”，也就是說成交量是股價變動的內在動力。由此，人們導出了多種量價關係的規則，用於指明具體的投資。在實際中，人們會發現根據量價關係來進行具體買賣股票時，常常會出現失誤，尤其是在根據成交量判斷主力出貨與洗盤方面，失誤率更高，不是錯把洗盤當出貨，過早賣出，就是誤將出貨當洗盤，該出不出，結果痛失出貨良機。

那麼，在實際投資中該如何根據成交量的變化，正確判斷出主力的進出方向。或者說，如何根據成交量的變化，準確判斷出主力是在出貨還是洗盤呢？

一般說來，當主力尚未準備拉抬股價時，股價的表現往往很沉悶，成交量的變化也很小。此時研究成交量沒有實際意義，也不好斷定主力的意圖。但是，一旦主力放量拉升股價時，其行蹤就會暴露。我們把這種股票稱為強勢股，此時研究成交量的變化，就具有非常重要的實際意義了。此時，如果能夠準確地捕捉到主力的洗盤跡象，並果斷介入，往往能在較短的時間內獲取理想的收益。實踐證明，根據成交量變化的特徵，可以對強勢股的主力是不是在洗盤，作出一個較為準確的判斷。

1、由於主力的積極介入，原本沉悶的股票在成交量的明顯放大推動下變得活躍起來，出現了價升量增的態勢。然後，主力為了給以後的大幅拉升掃平障礙，不得不將短線獲利盤強行洗去，這一洗盤行為，在K線圖上往往表現為陰陽相間的震蕩。同時，由於主力的目的是要一般投資者出局，因此，股價的K線形態往往成明顯的“頭部形態”。

2、在主力洗盤階段，K線組合往往是大陰不斷，並且收陰的次數多，且每次收陰時都伴有巨大的成交量，好像主力正在大肆出貨。其實，仔細觀察一下就會發現，當出現以上巨量大陰時，股價很少跌破10日移動平均線，短期移動平均線對股價構成強大支撐，主力低位回補的跡象一目了然。

3、在主力洗盤時，作為研判成交量變化的主要指標OBV、均量線，也會出現一些明顯的特徵，主要表現為：當出現以上大陰巨量時，股價的5日、10日均量線始終保持向上運行，說明主力一直在增倉，股票交投活躍，後市看好。另外，成交量的量化指標OBV在股價高位震蕩期間，始終保持向上，即使瞬間回落，也會迅速拉起，並能夠創出近期的新高。這說明單從量能的角度看，股價已具備上漲的條件。[/size][/font]

成交量

[font=標楷體][size=5]每日報章上股票報價一欄中都會刊登股票成交量及成交額這兩組重要的數據，雖然這兩組數據都可用作反映投資者對某股份後市之反應，但兩者所代表的資料則截然不同，由於成交額相等於股價乘以成交量，在成交量不變下，成交額亦有可能會隨股價上升而增加，又或者是在股價回落時，成交量同時增大，引致成交額增加，在以上兩個成交額同樣增加的情況下，背後所隱藏的啟示完全不同，所以投資者單看成交額而忽略股價及成交量，是不能準確預測股價之未來走勢。若股價升跌加上成交量增減下，可以總結如下﹕


1. 成交量增加，股價上升─當投資者對後市極度看好時，投資者會大舉入市，而股價受到眾多投資者所追捧，便會大幅上升，而交投量亦會變得異常活躍。

2. 成交量不變，股價上升─當投資者對後市仍然看好時，但由於預期之升幅只屬一般，部份投資者入市時會開始審慎，所以即使股價升勢仍然持續，但成交量並沒有上升。

3. 成交量減少，股價上升─當投資者預期升勢將會結束時，大部份投資者之入市意慾會下降，因此即使股價繼續上升，但成交量仍會減少。

4. 成交量增加，股價不變─當好友及淡友之勢力相若時，相方即使持續入市，但仍未可以把股價改動，由於雙方在現水平已累積一定的交投，若股價出現突破性的走勢，後市波幅會擴大。

5. 成交量不變，股價不變─當好友及淡友之勢力相若時，由於預期短期內出現突破的機會不大，所以成交量不會改變，在這種情況下，投資者亦很難預測後市方向。

6. 成交量減少，股價不變─當好友及淡友雙方在某一水平爭持多時後，雙方皆預期能佔優的機會不大時，成交量便會開始下降，所以當出現此種情況下，後市通常都會窄幅橫行。

7. 成交量增加，股價下跌─當投資者預期股價會進一步下跌時，為了盡快進行止蝕，大部份投資者會大手沽出手持股票，若股價進一步下跌時，更會進一步增加成交量。

8. 成交量不變，股價下跌─當投資者預期股價未必在短期內出現反彈下，便會繼續沽出手上持有之股份，但成交量未有大幅上升。

9. 成交量減少，股價下跌─當股價持續下跌時，投資者預期再下跌之空間已很少時，便會開始暫停沽出手持股票，希望待股價反彈後，才在較高的水平沽出，因此成交量會開始減少。[/size][/font]

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